India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is being viewed as both a justified and strategic move in response to ongoing cross-border terrorism and treaty violations by Pakistan, according to experts.

They argue the decision is a legitimate assertion of sovereign rights, meant to protect national interests and reinforce the need for reciprocity in international agreements.

“India has always respected global commitments, but it won’t be taken for granted, especially when a rogue state repeatedly breaches the spirit of treaties,” said one analyst.

Signed in 1960, the IWT allocates the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — to India, while Pakistan receives the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — with limited rights granted to India.

India served a formal notice to Pakistan in August, calling for a review and modification of the treaty, citing “fundamental and unforeseen changes in circumstances,” including environmental needs, demographic shifts, and ongoing security threats.

The tipping point came with Pakistan’s continued violation of treaty protocols, most notably in 2016, when it bypassed the agreed-upon dispute resolution process under Article IX of the treaty. Pakistan unilaterally approached the Court of Arbitration rather than following the graded dispute mechanism, which includes technical consultations and neutral expert review.

This pattern of weaponizing legal channels for political aims prompted India to issue a formal modification notice on January 25, 2023.

Despite diplomatic efforts, Pakistan persisted in violating treaty obligations, and the recent terror attack in Pahalgam, which claimed 26 lives, accelerated India’s decision to suspend the treaty.

India has already advanced multiple water infrastructure projects to assert control over its allocated rivers, including:

• Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project (commissioned in 2018)
• Ratle Hydroelectric Project (revived in 2021)
• Tulbul Navigation Project (potential revival)
• Shahpurkandi Dam (completed in 2024)
• Ujh Multipurpose Project (in planning phase)

These initiatives are designed to curb water flow into Pakistan and improve India’s irrigation, power generation, and strategic control over river resources.

Pakistan, which relies on the Indus system for irrigating nearly 80% of its farmland, faces severe consequences. Its agricultural sector supports two-thirds of its rural population and contributes over 20% to the national economy.

The country’s limited water storage, already a concern, may now deepen its food insecurity and economic vulnerability, while hydropower capacity could also be impacted.

India’s move signals a shift in water diplomacy, using river management as a tool to apply geopolitical pressure on Pakistan amid deteriorating bilateral ties.