Despite signing a landmark critical minerals and rare earths agreement with the United States in Tokyo, Japan remains wary that President Donald Trump may soften his stance toward China during his upcoming meeting with President Xi Jinping in South Korea, experts warned Tuesday.

Sayuri Romei, Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said Tokyo fears that Trump could “strike a deal with Beijing that impacts the regional balance.” The remarks followed Trump’s Tokyo visit, where he met Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and signed multiple pacts aimed at securing mineral supply chains vital for high-tech industries.

The White House statement said both nations will intensify cooperation to strengthen supply chain resilience and promote collaboration between upstream and downstream companies.

While US lawmakers hailed the deal as a bulwark against China’s economic coercion, Romei noted Tokyo’s concern over Trump’s unpredictability, saying he “always seems to listen to the last person who talks to him.”

The agreement comes as Washington expands its rare earth partnerships with Southeast Asian nations, following China’s export controls on key minerals earlier this month.

Experts, including Bonnie Glaser of GMF’s Indo-Pacific Program, believe Beijing holds leverage due to its dominance in rare earths but said the broader US-China rivalry over technology and global influence will persist regardless of any deal.