Bangladesh’s BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman is set to end his 26-year self-exile in London, announcing plans to return home and contest upcoming elections, raising expectations of a BNP victory. Rahman, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, is widely tipped to become Prime Minister if the party wins.

With the Awami League barred from contesting, opinion polls indicate a likely BNP triumph. India is closely monitoring developments, weighing the potential for renewed ties with Dhaka under a BNP-led government.

During BNP’s 2001-2006 rule, India-Bangladesh relations were strained over border security concerns and alleged support for anti-India groups. However, recent engagements at multiple levels, including PM Narendra Modi’s interactions with caretaker chief Muhammad Yunus, signal a desire to normalise relations irrespective of the ruling party.

Indian officials note that the BNP’s decision to distance itself from the Jamaat-e-Islami, viewed by India as an extremist organisation, is a positive step. Recent meetings between BNP leaders, including General Secretary Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, and Indian diplomats have emphasised that Bangladeshi soil would not be used against India’s security interests.

India hopes that the mature political outlook of Rahman, coupled with public demand for stability and economic growth, will drive stronger bilateral ties. The BNP is expected to recognise the strategic benefits of partnering with a reliable neighbour, contrasting with Pakistan’s ongoing political and security failures.

For India, the potential BNP-led government presents an opportunity to consolidate relations with Bangladesh, support regional stability, and promote trade and investment. The coming months could mark a turning point in India-Bangladesh diplomacy, with Rahman emerging as a key interlocutor for New Delhi.