Richard Rossow, Chair of India and Emerging Asia Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), has said that U.S. tariffs on Indian exports represent only a “small slice” of the country’s economy, while offering India an opportunity to diversify trade and accelerate key domestic reforms.

“Manufacturing accounts for just about 14 percent of India’s GDP. Most of the economy lies in services, particularly IT, which remains the backbone of India–U.S. commercial ties,” Rossow noted. He argued that while tariffs add pressure, the real growth potential depends on India’s ability to reform labor markets, improve infrastructure, and boost manufacturing.

Rossow suggested that India should respond by broadening its trade networks beyond Washington and strengthening domestic capacity. “India needs to strike out in other directions and build more significant partnerships. The keys to growth do not lie in a single trade agreement but in reforms within states,” he said.

He also described Washington’s secondary tariffs as a “negotiating tactic,” pressing New Delhi on market access issues while also exerting pressure on Russia. However, he pointed out that India appears to be “singled out,” as similar measures have not been applied to other major buyers of Russian oil such as China or Turkey.

India, meanwhile, has defended its energy purchases from Moscow, citing national interest and strategic autonomy. Since the start of the Ukraine war, India’s imports of Russian oil have surged from less than 1 percent to nearly 40 percent.

Looking ahead, Rossow remained cautiously optimistic. He said negotiations are still active, and neither side has indicated a breakdown. “India has not retaliated, signaling a willingness to find common ground. A deal is still possible,” he said.