The November 3 United States midterm elections could have significant implications for India-US relations, as voters decide whether President Donald Trump’s Republican Party retains control of Congress or faces a Democratic majority during the final two years of his presidency.

For India, the outcome goes beyond American domestic politics. The balance of power in Washington could influence trade negotiations, tariffs on Indian exports, immigration policies affecting Indian professionals and cooperation in defence and emerging technologies.

A Democratic victory in either the House of Representatives or the Senate would not remove Trump from office or automatically reverse his policies. However, it could make it more difficult for his administration to advance its legislative agenda without greater congressional scrutiny.

Trade and tariffs: Will Indian exporters get relief?

Trade is among India’s biggest concerns. Trump’s tariff policies have created uncertainty for Indian exporters, particularly in textiles, pharmaceuticals, engineering goods and manufacturing.

If Democrats gain control of either chamber, they could use congressional hearings, investigations and legislative proposals to question the administration’s tariff decisions and ongoing trade negotiations.

However, a change in congressional control does not guarantee lower tariffs on Indian products. The US President retains considerable authority under existing trade laws to impose or modify duties. Congressional efforts to restrict those powers could face procedural and political challenges.

Consequently, Indian businesses may see increased political scrutiny of US trade policy, but immediate tariff relief is far from certain.

H-1B visas: What it means for Indian professionals

Immigration policy is another major concern for India, particularly its technology industry and millions of professionals with ties to the American job market.

The H-1B visa programme remains an important route for skilled foreign workers, including Indian technology professionals employed by American companies and Indian IT services firms.

The Trump administration’s restrictions and proposed changes to the programme have raised concerns among employers, workers and prospective applicants.

A Democratic-controlled Congress could increase scrutiny of immigration-related decisions and encourage legislative discussions on skilled-worker visas. Nevertheless, immigration policy is also shaped by presidential executive actions, federal regulations and court decisions. A Democratic victory would not automatically reverse existing restrictions.

Technology and defence cooperation

India and the United States have expanded cooperation in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, critical minerals, defence and emerging technologies.

The TRUST initiative, launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump in February 2025, aims to strengthen collaboration in critical and emerging technologies and build more resilient supply chains.

A change in congressional leadership could influence funding priorities, defence-related oversight, arms sales and the pace of certain technology initiatives.

However, India-US strategic cooperation has received support from both major American political parties over several administrations. A Democratic victory would not necessarily signal a fundamental shift in Washington’s approach towards New Delhi.

How much power would Democrats gain?

The US Congress consists of two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are being contested in the November 3 elections.

Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers. If Democrats win control of either or both, they would gain greater authority to conduct investigations, hold hearings, influence legislation and scrutinise government spending.

Control of the Senate would also give Democrats greater influence over presidential appointments.

However, Trump would remain president until January 2029. He would retain substantial executive powers, including the authority to veto legislation passed by Congress.

Democrats would therefore be able to increase political and institutional pressure on the administration, but overturning presidential policies would remain difficult.

What should India watch?

For New Delhi, the midterm results will be an important indicator of the political environment surrounding its relationship with Washington.

The immediate concerns are the future of trade negotiations, tariff uncertainty and immigration rules affecting Indian professionals. Beyond these issues, India will also be watching developments in defence cooperation, technology partnerships and broader strategic engagement.

A Democratic-controlled Congress could create additional checks on Trump’s decisions, but it would not automatically deliver policy changes favourable to India.

Ultimately, the elections will determine how much political room Trump has to pursue his agenda during the remaining two years of his presidency. For India, the central question is whether a divided Washington creates greater uncertainty or opens new opportunities for diplomatic engagement.