Why the wait? Delays and expectations for final U.S. presidential election results

By: Avi Verma MD(h)

Changes in voting processes and potential challenges

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Americans may experience shorter delays in knowing the final results compared to the 2020 election. While quick results were the norm before 2020, delays then stretched for days due to a historic surge in mail-in voting amid the COVID-19 pandemic. This year, modifications in vote-processing policies in key states aim to speed things up, but factors like a close race could mean results aren’t fully known on election night.

Key factors impacting election results timing

1. Policy Changes for Mail-in Ballots: Several states have changed rules to allow for processing mail-in ballots before Election Day, including signature verification and ballot preparation. According to Quinn Yeargin of Michigan State University, these adjustments may reduce delays, although states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin still restrict ballot processing until Election Day itself.
2. Potential for a Close Race: When races are particularly close, the media’s decision desks take extra time to analyze vote data before projecting a winner, as even a small margin can impact the results. This year, polls indicate a tight race, so media outlets may wait until enough ballots are counted to rule out any major shifts.
3. Misinformation and Public Trust: Mis- and disinformation spread doubts about the legitimacy of mail-in voting and counting procedures, adding scrutiny and public tension, especially in battleground states. Pete Seat of the University of Arizona highlights that the same processes are used nationwide, but misinformation can create public distrust in specific states.

When will we know the results?

Historically, Americans expected results by the following morning, but a repeat of 2020’s extended wait isn’t out of the question if the race is too close to call. Election officials encourage patience as results are confirmed.

What if the loser does not concede?

A concession is a symbolic act, not legally required to determine the outcome. However, if a candidate challenges results, the case could go to court, especially in close states. This scenario would prolong the process, potentially leaving the public waiting for legal rulings to settle any disputes.

Conclusion: This year’s election timing depends largely on the margin of victory and the impact of new ballot processing rules. While experts expect quicker results than in 2020, they caution that a close race might still delay the final call, requiring patience and trust in the process.