A new survey has revealed that a majority of Australians doubt the country will ever receive nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS defence pact with the US and UK.

According to a poll conducted by Essential Research, 60% of respondents said it is “not that likely” or “not likely at all” that the United States will deliver the promised submarines under the trilateral security agreement. Only 6% of Australians said delivery was “very likely,” while 34% considered it “quite likely.”

The survey, published by The Guardian Australia, found skepticism across all age groups and genders, with the highest doubts among those aged 55 and older—65% of whom questioned the likelihood of submarine delivery.

The findings come just days after Australia and the UK signed a 50-year bilateral agreement, known as the Geelong Treaty, to strengthen defence cooperation under AUKUS Pillar I. Signed on July 26 by Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles and UK Defence Secretary John Healey, the treaty aims to support collaboration on design, construction, operations, and future sustainment of the SSN-AUKUS submarines.

Despite the UK-Australia commitment, confidence in the United States’ role in AUKUS appears to be waning. The same survey reported a drop in Australian public opinion on the U.S. relationship—from 65% positive in November 2023 to just 40% in July 2025.

The Geelong Treaty will also support the development of Australia’s submarine workforce, infrastructure, and regulations, while enabling UK Astute-class submarines to rotate through HMAS Stirling naval base under the Submarine Rotational Force-West agreement.