India’s rapidly expanding defence manufacturing sector is drawing increasing international attention as global powers reassess supply chains and strategic partnerships amid China’s growing industrial dominance.

A new analysis by American experts Mike Kuiken and Leland Miller argues that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative has significantly strengthened India’s defence and industrial capabilities, positioning the country as a crucial strategic partner for the United States and its allies.

Writing in The Wire China, the experts said India has built industrial corridors, increased foreign investment limits and created a growing defence-tech startup ecosystem that is already producing export-oriented results.

According to the report, India has set an ambitious defence export target of nearly $6 billion by 2029, compared to roughly $80 million a decade ago. The analysts said this growth reflects a “tangible and expanding capacity” in India’s defence sector.

The report came shortly after a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing, which the authors said once again highlighted the widening industrial imbalance between China and the West.

They noted that China’s manufacturing base now exceeds the combined industrial output of the United States, Japan and Germany, making it increasingly difficult for Western economies to compete independently.

According to the analysts, India has become strategically important because it represents one of the few large-scale industrial alternatives capable of helping balance China’s manufacturing influence.

The report also highlighted India’s growing defence cooperation with the United States, including agreements focused on joint research, co-development, innovation and defence supply security.

The authors referenced the 2023 remarks of former US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who argued during the Munich Security Conference that the United States and Europe could not effectively compete with China without India playing a central role.

However, the report also criticised Washington for moving too slowly in deepening defence cooperation with New Delhi.

The analysts argued that restrictive export-control systems, complicated procurement procedures and outdated technology-sharing frameworks continue to limit the full potential of the US-India strategic partnership.

They said the broader strategic consensus supporting closer US-India ties already exists in Washington, but bureaucratic and regulatory obstacles remain major barriers to meaningful execution.

The report concluded that unless the United States modernises its defence technology-sharing architecture with India, Beijing will continue strengthening its industrial and technological advantages in the years ahead.