The fall of the Sheikh Hasina-led government in Bangladesh and the rise of a military-backed administration under Muhammad Yunus has triggered serious concerns, both domestically and across South Asia. Amid a volatile political transition, the controversial release of over 300 individuals accused or convicted of militancy-related crimes threatens to undo nearly a decade of progress in counter-terrorism — posing a direct risk to regional peace and security.

Since the August 5, 2024 power shift, individuals affiliated with banned extremist groups such as Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI), Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), and Hizb-ut-Tahrir have been quietly released. Many of them were implicated in deadly terror attacks, including the 2016 Holey Artisan Bakery massacre in Dhaka that claimed 22 lives. Others were responsible for the assassinations of secular bloggers and public intellectuals.

The new regime argues that these cases were politically motivated and that the judicial process must be allowed to take its course. But the sheer speed and opacity of the releases have sparked alarm in regional intelligence and diplomatic circles.

India’s Security Concerns
India, which shares a 4,096 km border with Bangladesh, views this development with growing unease. In recent years, counter-terrorism cooperation between New Delhi and Dhaka has led to the dismantling of several cross-border militant modules and the neutralization of JMB operations in West Bengal and Assam.

With the sudden release of radicalized individuals — many of whom still retain digital access, sleeper cell ties, and ideological motivation — there is now an increased risk of militant resurgence in India’s northeast. States such as West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, and Tripura remain particularly vulnerable due to their geography and demographic diversity.

Encrypted communication channels have already begun showing renewed activity linked to groups like Hizb-ut-Tahrir and Jamaatul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya (JAFHS), raising red flags across intelligence networks.

Regional Implications
The threat extends beyond India and Bangladesh. The reactivation of jihadist networks in Bangladesh could reverberate across the South Asian region — affecting Myanmar’s Rakhine state, deepening tensions in the Indian subcontinent, and even enabling the movement of fighters toward Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Such developments jeopardize regional cooperation frameworks like BIMSTEC, while giving transnational jihadist groups like Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and ISIS-inspired cells a new lease on life. These groups thrive in political vacuums, exploiting instability and discontent to expand their reach.

Rehabilitation vs. Recklessness
Supporters of the new Bangladeshi government claim that many of the released individuals have renounced violence. Yet experts warn that deradicalization is a complex and lengthy process that cannot be assumed or rushed. Structured rehabilitation, psychological counseling, education, and close monitoring are essential — none of which appear to have been adequately implemented.

Instead, the releases suggest political maneuvering, possibly aimed at appeasing Islamist groups once marginalized under Hasina’s secular administration. Some in the new government have even downplayed the militancy threat as an invention of the former regime — a narrative that undermines years of sacrifice and effort by security forces and civil society alike.

A Call to Action
This unfolding crisis demands immediate attention. India and Bangladesh must convene high-level bilateral talks focused specifically on security and militancy. Intelligence-sharing protocols and joint monitoring efforts must be reactivated and expanded.

Simultaneously, BIMSTEC and other regional platforms should be leveraged to initiate a coordinated response to any resurgence of extremism. International oversight — possibly under the United Nations — could help ensure transparency and accountability in Bangladesh’s transition phase.

Civil society organisations working on counter-radicalization, education, and interfaith cohesion also need urgent support. Their role in preventing extremist narratives from taking root is indispensable.

Conclusion
South Asia stands at a crossroads. The relative peace of the past decade has come at a cost — one paid in blood, vigilance, and resilience. A rollback of hard-earned gains in the name of political expediency would be catastrophic, not just for Bangladesh but for the entire region.

For the Muhammad Yunus administration, the world is watching. For India and its neighbours, the moment to act decisively is now. The stakes could not be higher.