Analysis: New chapter for US-China ties? Trump’s victory raises questions for global relations

By: Nikita Sharma

Chinese President Xi Jinping offered a measured response to Donald Trump’s return to the White House, emphasizing the importance of finding ways for the U.S. and China to “get along” amid the tumultuous backdrop of their long-standing rivalry. In his congratulatory message on Thursday, Xi underscored the need for cooperation between the two superpowers, warning that both nations would suffer from confrontation, a sentiment that highlights the potential risks posed by Trump’s second term for global diplomacy and the world economy.

Trump’s victory could usher in a period of heightened unpredictability in U.S.-China relations, which have been deteriorating for years due to issues ranging from trade imbalances and technological tensions to territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the delicate status of Taiwan. As the U.S. and China remain the world’s largest economies, the trajectory of their relationship will have sweeping implications not only for their own prosperity but for allies across the Asia-Pacific region, including Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

In his message to Trump, Xi emphasized that cooperation between the U.S. and China would benefit both countries and the wider world, while confrontation would lead to losses. He also urged both nations to adapt to a “new era” of interaction. The tone of China’s reaction suggests cautious optimism, but there are serious concerns about how Trump’s more aggressive approach to China during his first term may resurface. Chinese media has suggested that a second Trump presidency could signal either a new beginning for relations or a missed opportunity to mend ties.

Trump’s prior term was marked by high-stakes trade wars, tariffs, and escalating tensions over the origins of COVID-19. Beijing now faces the prospect of a return to that combative approach, or possibly a more transactional, deal-making style, similar to the early years of his first term. However, Xi’s government is bracing for both outcomes, understanding that a more confrontational stance could significantly affect China’s economic growth, especially if Trump follows through on threats to impose steep tariffs on Chinese imports.

Some experts suggest that China may be preparing to inject more stimulus into its economy in anticipation of Trump’s potential policies. The country’s government is also carefully monitoring the U.S.’s stance on technology, particularly the U.S. export controls targeting China’s semiconductor industry. Tech magnates like Elon Musk, who has business ties in China, could play a role in influencing U.S. policy, though it remains unclear whether his influence will be enough to shift the trajectory of U.S.-China relations.

Meanwhile, Taiwan remains a flashpoint. Trump’s rhetoric during the campaign included calls for Taiwan to “pay” the U.S. for its defense against Chinese aggression, a stance that has raised alarms in both Beijing and Taipei. The self-ruled island, which China views as a breakaway province, continues to be a source of friction between the two superpowers. Although Trump’s prior comments about Taiwan seemed to downplay the likelihood of military conflict, experts note that Beijing will continue to apply diplomatic and military pressure on Taiwan, regardless of who is in the White House.

With the U.S. embroiled in multiple global conflicts and challenges, including the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, Trump may find himself needing to cooperate with China on certain issues, despite the deep ideological rift between the two nations. Experts suggest that China will likely remain a key player in efforts to stabilize these regions, but it is unclear whether Trump’s more isolationist tendencies will allow for meaningful collaboration.

The road ahead for U.S.-China relations under Trump will undoubtedly be one of uncertainty, with potential for both heightened tensions and unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs. As both countries grapple with their complex, intertwined futures, the world will be watching to see whether they can indeed “get along” in this new era.