Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has warned of a projected 21% shortage in water availability during the ongoing Kharif season, attributing it to a sudden drop in River Chenab’s inflow following India’s move to block water supplies.

The warning came after IRSA’s Advisory Committee (IAC) meeting, which reviewed anticipated water availability for the remaining Kharif season — a vital period for the cultivation of rice, sugarcane, and cotton. The meeting expressed serious concerns about the falling water levels in River Chenab.

According to officials, India’s action follows the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack that left 26 civilians dead. In response, New Delhi reportedly put the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance and closed all sluice gates of the Salal and Baglihar dams in Jammu and Kashmir’s Reasi and Ramban districts.

“If the decline in inflows continues, the shortage will be reassessed,” IRSA said in a statement.

Under normal conditions, water availability from June to September was projected to fall short by 7%. However, with the disruption in water flows from India, the deficit could rise sharply to 21%, significantly affecting Pakistan’s water-dependent agricultural sector.

To manage the situation, the committee approved a “conjunctive use strategy” to regulate water releases from the Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs, aiming to ensure that all provinces receive their allocated shares despite reduced river flows.

The looming shortage poses a severe threat to Pakistan’s agriculture sector, which employs more than 38% of the workforce and contributes around 20% to the national GDP.

“Prolonged shortages could disrupt crop cycles, reduce yields, and inflate food prices, severely impacting rural livelihoods,” warned analyst Israr Khan.

He added that reduced irrigation during sowing months could hurt cotton production, a vital export commodity and a key input for the country’s textile industry.

Experts are calling for urgent diplomatic and policy-level responses to avoid long-term damage to Pakistan’s food and economic security.