The Baloch community has sharply criticised the recent US-Pakistan mineral agreement, calling it a “strategic mistake” that could intensify unrest in Balochistan. Local leader Mir Yar Baloch warned that the deal would empower Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies while further marginalising the province’s residents.

According to an India Narrative report, Islamabad may view the agreement as an economic breakthrough to attract American investment and reduce dependence on China. However, Balochistan’s history with major development projects has left deep scars, with previous ventures by companies like Barrick Gold and China Metallurgical Group failing to deliver promised local benefits.

Projects such as the Saindak copper-gold mine, operated by Chinese firms for over a decade, have brought significant resource extraction but little improvement in infrastructure or employment for locals. Similarly, the Reko Diq mine — among the world’s largest copper-gold reserves — has been plagued by disputes over revenue distribution, with profits flowing mainly to federal authorities and foreign partners.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, has also sparked violence in Balochistan. Despite heavy military protection, attacks on CPEC-linked projects have increased, undermining investor confidence.

US President Donald Trump’s push to tap Pakistan’s mineral wealth is part of a broader strategy to reduce China’s dominance in critical minerals vital for advanced military technologies. While Pakistan’s proven oil reserves are modest, Balochistan holds significant deposits of copper, gold, and rare earths — resources that Washington views as strategically important.

Analysts warn that without addressing local grievances, the US risks repeating China’s mistakes, with mining projects facing violence, stalled infrastructure, and mounting resentment. Deals struck without transparency or community consent, they say, are likely to deepen instability rather than bring lasting prosperity.