Mini Feature BONILLA DAY, JULY 1

By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +8.8% (above average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 25 (extreme fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 56.04% (positive)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 64.60% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 4/30/26
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 62.61%, Hybrids 3.96%, Bonds 17.12%, M-Mkt 16.31%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.50-3.75%
FOMC 7/29/26+ hold
FOMC 9/16/26+ hike

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.83%, 1-yr 3.94%; T-Notes 2-yr 4.07%, 5-yr 4.12%, 10-yr 4.38%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.87%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.91%, 10-yr 2.18%, 30-yr 2.69%
FRNs Index 3.730%

Bank Rates 
www.depositaccounts.com/


Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 6/1/26
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.25%, RA 5.00%
Flexible RCP 4.50%, SRA 4.25%, IRA-101110+ 3.65%
TIAA MYGA 4.35% (3-yr), 4.50% (5-yr), 4.60% (7-yr)
TSP G Fund 4.500% (previous 4.500%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 65.47 (greed-high)
Weekly ETFs: INDA -0.04%, INDY +0.51%, EPI -0.26%, INDH +0.27% | SPY -2.38%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

GEOPOLITICS.

US-Iran deal framework was signed at G-7 in France & there were follow up meetings in Switzerland after brief delays. More talks are planned.

Construction has started for the world’s biggest dam on Yarlung-Tsangpo-Brahmputra River by China. This massive hydroelectric project is just 31 miles from Indian border. Yarlung Tsangpo originates in Tibet, it’s known as Siang River in Arunachal Pradesh & Brahmaputra River in Assam & beyond. In response, India is also considering a large hydroelectric project downstream on Brahmaputra River. However, two such massive hydroelectric projects in earthquake prone areas look like a natural disaster waiting to happen.

FINANCIAL. US crypto firm Coinbase/COIN finally has real-time rupee payment (IMPS) connectivity with customers’ bank accounts after getting proper registrations & approvals. It overcame obstacles it faced earlier in 2022-23 when it rushed things. Coinbase is a combination crypto exchange, broker-dealer & custodian. Crypto trading is allowed in India but there are steep fees/taxes: 30% tax on gains, 1% transfer tax on amounts exceeding $10,000 & no loss offsets. Crypto firms hope that these fees/taxes will come down in future. Regular (nontrading) transactions must be in rupees. RBI also has CBDC (central bank digital currency).

IT/TECH

US AI & cybersecurity company Theom (Cofounder & CEO Navindra Yadav) is establishing GCC in Hyderabad, India.

Tata Group TCS & US AI company Anthropic have a partnership for enterprise AI. Anthropic also has partnership with Infosys/INFY. Anthropic has office in Bengaluru to drive its various collaborations & partnerships in India – Air India, EkStep Foundation, OpenAgriNet, Karya, Collective Intelligence Project, Digital Green, Adalat AI, Razorpay, Enterpret, Pratham, etc. US government has restricted foreign access for Anthropic’s latest AI models.

SPECIAL TOPIC – BONILLA DAY, JULY 1

Annuities rarely get widespread favorable coverage in the media. But there is Bonilla Day, July 1. Insurers have also latched on to make it a big PR event.

Bobby BONILLA (1963- ) was a famous baseball player, MLB 1986-2001. He played for Chicago White Sox (1986), NY Mets (1992-95, 1999), St Louis Cardinals (2001), etc. He received many awards & was at times the highest-paid player in MLB.

But he is now famous for another reason. When NY Mets released him in 1999, he negotiated a private deferred-income annuity (DIA) contract for the lump-sum settlement of $5.9 million. The DIA was deferred for 10 years at 8% interest (balance in 2010 was $13.7 million) & then uniform payouts started for 25 years (2011-35) at 8% assumed interest rate (AIR). His annual payout is amazing $1.2 million/yr on each July 1 (9 more years to go).

Although this is a simple magic of compound interest, the results achieved were outstanding & July 1 has been designated as BONILLA DAY by NY Mets fans & insurers.

There is a large variety of annuities, from accumulating to decumulating (income), & combinations such as DIAs. Simpler & cheaper are accumulating annuities, MYGA (multiyear guaranteed annuity), SPIA (single premium immediate annuity) & DIA. Bonilla’s DIA annuity isn’t even a typical DIA that has deferred LIFETIME income feature (not for fixed periods). These are also called longevity annuities. A special DIA is QLAC from T-IRA, 401k/403b with limits ($210K in 2026, inflation-adjusted); RMDs don’t apply to QLAC amounts.

Don’t feel sorry for the group backing this private DIA. The assumed 8% interest looks very generous today, but not when this DIA was written & the group likely hedged its liability with a combination of investments (liability matching).

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