By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

Mini Feature RUPEE IN TRANSITION


CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -11.9% (very low)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 31 (fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 23.51% (oversold)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 25.00% (oversold)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 8/30/26

OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 63.33%, Hybrids 3.85%, Bonds 16.83%, M-Mkt 15.99%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch

Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.75-4.00%
FOMC 10/28/26+ hold
FOMC 12/9/26+ hike

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.19%, 1-yr 4.46%; T-Notes 2-yr 4.83%, 5-yr 5.06%, 10-yr 5.28%; T-Bonds 30-yr 5.63% (normal yield-curve);
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 2.69%, 10-yr 2.92%, 30-yr 3.34%
FRNs Index 4.153%

Bank Rates www.depositaccounts.com/



Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 10/1/26
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.75%, RA 5.50%
Flexible RCP 5.00%, SRA 4.75%, IRA-101110+ 4.65%
TIAA MYGA 5.30% (3-yr), 5.40% (5-yr), 5.50% (7-yr)
TSP G Fund 5.375% (previous 4.875%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 12.74 (fear)
Weekly ETFs: INDA -2.80%, EPI -3.04%, INDH -2.34%, SMIN -2.59% | SPY -0.22%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

ENERGY

Essar Energy Transition Retail (EET Retail/Essar) is buying UK retail fuel distributor SGN Retail for integrated refinery-to-pump (forecourt) fuel operations.

FINTECH

US Bank of America/BAC Zelle may link to Indian UPI for NRI/OCI cross-border transfers by the end of 2026. Zelle is operated by Early Warning Services that’s is owned by a consortium of 7 US banks: Bank of America, Capital One, JPMorgan Chase, PNC Bank, Truist, US Bank & Wells Fargo. UPI is operated by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI). Once beyond testing, a working Zelle-UPI linkage will be a fantastic development.

HEALTHCARE

UK global private-equity firm Leapfrog Investments will make additional investments in Indian healthcare – diagnostics, maternal care, ophthalmology, oncology, medical equipment, pharms & healthcare providers. Its current Indian investments include Radcliffe Labs (diagnostics) & Healthify (healthcare provider).

INDUSTRIALS

Exide Industries-India & German ExCom Energy Solutions partner on industrial batteries for European Economic Area (EEA). Exide-India’s origin was from a UK subsidiary/licensee of US Exide which went bankrupt 3x.

Mirai Aerospace Systems & Software Solutions & US GreenValley International partner on LiDAR (light/laser detection & ranging) that has applications in agriculture, defense, infrastructure, transportation, mining & urban planning & utilities.

SPACE TECHNOLOGY

Indian imaging/ mapping satellite EOS-05 (also, GISAT-1A) was launched by ISRO into a sub-GTO orbit from where it self-launched into a GEO orbit. India uses this 2-step process because it lack very powerful rockets. EOS-05 will use multispectral & hyperspectral images (i.e. well beyond the visual spectrum) for agricultural, oceanographic, glacier monitoring, disaster management & border security purposes. EOS = earth observation satellite, GEO = geostationary orbit, GTO = geostationary transfer orbit (highly elliptical)

SPECIAL TOPIC – RUPEE IN TRANSITION

Rupee has weakened significantly in 2026: $1 = Rs 90s. The causes include foreign fund outflows; higher oil & other import prices due to Iran war & Hormuz shipping disruptions; & budgetary stresses due to government caps on some domestic prices. Iran war effects on Indian economy & rupee have been quite significant.

US trade tariffs have been another headwind. When an early US-India trade deal in 2025 didn’t materialize, high US tariffs were imposed on India. US Supreme Court blocked many US tariffs, so those have come down & there is now hope that the initial phase of US-India trade deal may be reached in 2026. Indian trade relations with Russia & Iran have also created risks of US sanctions.

In a positive development, Sergio GOR, a close confidant of President TRUMP, is the US Ambassador to India (01/2026- ).

Weak rupee cuts into dollar returns of foreign investors that have been lackluster. Among the Asian markets, S Korea, Taiwan & Japan are rallying due to AI/tech & semis. India is not a big player in AI/tech yet. These factors have pulled some foreign funds away from India. There is net trade deficit, so weak rupee hurts overall – the favorable impact of weak rupee on exports is more than overcome by unfavorable impact of imports (especially, oil & gas, fertilizer, chemicals, technology).

RBI implemented an incentive program, effective 6/8/26, that offered lucrative rates for repatriable foreign currency term-deposits (FCNRs). After a slow start, it attracted deposits well above expectations so that the program was ended early on 8/31/26 (vs planned 9/30/26).

Sample values for rupees for $1 at yearends; month-ends for 2026:

2010-44.70
2011-53.01, 2012-54.99, 2013-61.80, 2014-63.16, 2015-66.23
2016-67.96, 2017-63.83, 2018-69.49, 2019-71.21, 2020-73.05
2021-74.49, 2022-82.74, 2023-83.25, 2024-85.55, 2025-89.99
2026: 01-91.68, 02-91.08, 03-93.48, 04-94.76, 05-94.99, 06-94.92
07-95.39, 08-95.17, 09-95.96

For more information, see ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/