Personal Finance Insights: News & Features

By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

WEEKLY DATA

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -14.3% (low)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 22 (extreme fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 44.80% (negative)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 62.00% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 9/30/26
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 63.30%, Hybrids 3.81%, Bonds 16.73%, M-Mkt 16.16%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.75-4.00%
FOMC 12/9/26+ hike
FOMC 1/27/27+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.19%, 1-yr 4.33%; T-Notes 2-yr 4.51%, 5-yr 4.64%, 10-yr 4.86%; T-Bonds 30-yr 5.26%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 2.35%, 10-yr 2.63%, 30-yr 3.07%
FRNs Index 4.082%

Bank Rates
 www.depositaccounts.com/


Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 11/1/26
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.75%, RA 5.50%
Flexible RCP 5.00%, SRA 4.75%, IRA-101110+ 4.75%
TIAA MYGA 5.50% (3-yr), 5.65% (5-yr), 5.70% (7-yr)
TSP G Fund 5.00% (previous 5.375%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 77.16 (extreme greed)
Weekly ETFs: INDA +6.64%, EPI +6.03%, INDH +5.34%, SMIN +3.68% | SPY -2.70%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

NEWS

US midterm elections flipped House & Senate to Democrats. Resulting moderation in US policies should benefit India & its markets had a relief rally.

ENERGY

India is #3 in global oil refining capacity & #2 in refined petroleum product exports after several Russian refineries were damaged. Reliance dual-refinery in Jamnagar is the largest in the world. US Secretary of State RUBIO recently called India a refining superpower. India has been playing an important role in the global oil supply-chain by exporting refined petroleum products. That’s one reason why US has taken wait & see approach as India adjusts sources of its crude oil import (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela, etc).

FINANCIALS

Indian Supremes rejected the appeal by YES Bank & RBI on the wipeout of AT-1 bonds because in the specific 2020 legislation used by administrator for rescue, that RBI power was missing in the final version due to industry opposition (it was only in the draft version); Bombay HC previously ruled in favor of bondholders.

Supremes said they can’t have it both ways – make industry happy with a final weak version, but use the stronger draft version to wipe out AT-1 bond holders. Now the reinstated AT-1 bonds have to dealt with in a different way – phased write-down or conversion to equity. The new 24.99% owner of Yes Bank, Japanese SMBC (part of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group), won’t be happy. Other global financials jumping into Indian financials (banking, insurance, fintech) will also be watching with interest.
This may lead to confidence issues – if RBI & Gov actions or representations cannot be relied upon, or can be reversed by courts later.

FEATURE: INDIAN PHARMA – SUN PHARMA

Indian pharma has become a big global business. Many drug APIs (advanced pharma ingredients) are made in India or imported from China, generic (mostly) & prescription (some) drugs are produced & shipped globally, directly or through Middle East.

It became clear by news recently when (i) US sanctions mostly exempted pharma, (ii) due to Iran war, many pharma shipments procured by Middle Eastern traders were stuck in ME warehouses when Hormuz shipping was disrupted – & people asked, why sudden pharma shortages?

The argument that US high drug prices support drug R&D doesn’t apply to imported drugs & large profits are just pocketed by US middlemen – drug distributors & PBMs (pharmacy benefits managers). India-sourced drugs are much cheaper in Europe & Canada than in US.

India has almost become the world’s pharmacy but many of its top 10 pharma companies aren’t familiar names (#5 or #6 Dr Reddy’s/RDY trades in US). India has 650+ US-FDA approved drug manufacturing facilities. The biggest, SUN PHARMA, is featured here.

Sun Pharma was founded by Dilip SHANGHVI (71) in 1983 & it was listed in 1994. It grew rapidly with domestic & foreign M&A, including several US pharma acquisitions (Caraco, 1997; Taro, controlling stake in 2010, full ownership in 2024; DUSA & URL, 2012; Ocular, 2016; Concert & 60% stake in Vivaldis, 2023; Checkpoint, 2025; Organon, 2026). It has some licensing agreements with US Merck/MRK & others.

It spun off its advanced R&D unit SPARC that’s separately listed in India; Shanghvi Finance & Shanghavi family have controlling stakes.

Dilip S avoids limelight & there is a book about him, “reluctant Billionaire”. He can probably walk the streets unrecognized. His son Aalok & daughter Vidhi work for Sun Pharma.

Many Indian immigrants in US may have kids older than Sun Pharma & can be excused if they never heard of it – until now.

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