By: Kushvinder Vohra
Former Chairman, Central Water Commission, ex officio Secretary to the Government of India and Former Indian Commissioner

For decades, sections of Pakistan’s political and media establishment have portrayed India as the primary cause of Pakistan’s water problems. The narrative has intensified after India decided to keep the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance. Yet a closer examination of facts, official data and international studies reveals a very different reality: Pakistan’s water stress is driven far more by poor water management than by any reduction in Indus flows from India.

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, gave Pakistan rights over the three western rivers, Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, while allowing India limited, specified uses. At the time of the treaty, Pakistan was estimated to receive about 135 million acre feet annually from these rivers. Today, various studies show that Pakistan still receives roughly 140 to 142 million acre feet on average, which is equal to or slightly more than the quantity available when the treaty was signed.

If the inflow has not declined significantly, why does Pakistan repeatedly face water shortages? The answer lies in how the available water is used.

The real problem: waste and inefficiency

Out of roughly 140 million acre feet received annually, Pakistan diverts only about 104 million acre feet for irrigation. Nearly 10 million acre feet is lost within the canal system, and another 28 to 30 million acre feet flows unused into the sea. In other words, more than one-fourth of the available water is either wasted or remains unutilized.

Even the water that reaches farms is used inefficiently. Studies indicate that crop water productivity in Pakistan is among the lowest in the world. For example, wheat production per unit of water is significantly lower than in India. Despite receiving abundant river flows, Pakistan has not made substantial progress in modern irrigation, micro-irrigation, precision farming or large-scale water conservation.

What international studies say

The World Bank’s report ‘Pakistan: Getting More from Water’ offers a sobering assessment. It concludes that Pakistan is actually well-endowed with water resources and that the country’s long-term water insecurity stems primarily from poor governance, weak planning, inadequate data systems, groundwater over-extraction, pollution and low water productivity.

The report also notes that many countries with less water per person than Pakistan have far stronger economies and better living standards. Water scarcity alone does not determine a nation’s destiny; management does.

The storage deficit

One of Pakistan’s biggest structural weaknesses is inadequate storage capacity. The country can store only a small fraction of its annual river flows, far below many arid nations. Since most Indus water arrives during a few monsoon months, insufficient storage means large volumes simply pass through the system and are lost to the sea.

After the construction of Tarbela Dam decades ago, major storage expansion has remained limited due to political disputes and delayed decision-making. Without adequate reservoirs, achieving reliable year-round irrigation becomes extremely difficult.

Groundwater crisis

Pakistan has also become heavily dependent on groundwater. Millions of private tube wells have been installed, and extraction in many regions exceeds natural recharge. Falling water tables, salinity and deteriorating groundwater quality now threaten long-term agricultural sustainability.

India faces groundwater challenges as well, but it has increasingly invested in recharge structures, rainwater harvesting, aquifer mapping, crop diversification and community-based groundwater management. These efforts are not perfect, but they represent a serious attempt to address the problem.

India’s water reform push

Over the past decade, India has invested heavily in water conservation, watershed development, micro-irrigation, canal modernization, groundwater recharge and programs such as ‘Per Drop More Crop.’ Thousands of tanks, ponds and recharge structures have been created, and several states have introduced incentives to reduce excessive groundwater pumping and encourage less water-intensive crops.

The contrast is striking: while India is increasingly focusing on efficiency and conservation, Pakistan’s public discourse often remains centered on accusations against India rather than reforms within Pakistan.

The political convenience of blame

Blaming India serves a political purpose. It creates a simple external explanation for a complex domestic problem. Yet the numbers do not support the claim that India has deprived Pakistan of the water guaranteed under the treaty. Pakistan continues to receive roughly the same volume of western-river water as envisioned in 1960.

What has changed dramatically is population, demand, urbanization, climate variability and pressure on agriculture. These challenges require modern water governance, not perpetual rhetoric.

Why this matters for India

India should not view this debate merely as a bilateral dispute. The future of South Asia will increasingly depend on how countries manage water under conditions of climate change and population growth. Efficient irrigation, wastewater recycling, groundwater management, river rejuvenation and technology-driven monitoring will become essential across the region.

For India, improving water productivity is also a strategic necessity. Agriculture still consumes the overwhelming share of freshwater, and long-term food security will depend on using every drop more wisely.

The way forward

Pakistan’s water crisis is real, but it is not primarily a story of India “turning off the tap.” It is a story of inadequate storage, inefficient irrigation, groundwater depletion, weak institutions and unresolved inter-provincial disputes. The water currently being wasted within Pakistan is itself large enough to substantially improve the country’s water security if managed effectively.

No amount of blaming India can substitute for integrated water resource management. Sustainable solutions require better storage, modern irrigation, groundwater regulation, crop diversification, institutional reform and the adoption of modern technology.

Public debate in Pakistan would be far more productive if it focused on these reforms rather than on an exaggerated narrative of Indian responsibility. The Indus basin’s future will depend less on political slogans and more on whether the region’s governments are willing to manage water as a precious and finite resource.

Courtesy: Vandana Jhingan