The ongoing conflict in West Asia could push up to 2.5 million people in India into poverty, according to a new report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), highlighting the far-reaching economic consequences of the escalating crisis.

The report, titled “Military Escalation in the Middle East: Human Development Impacts Across Asia and the Pacific,” warns that rising fuel prices, increased freight costs, and broader economic disruptions are placing significant pressure on household incomes. These factors are expected to reduce purchasing power, increase food insecurity, and strain already vulnerable populations.

According to the UNDP’s preliminary assessment, poverty levels in India could rise sharply from around 400,000 to 2.5 million people as a direct and indirect result of the conflict. The report also indicates that India may experience setbacks in its human development progress, reflecting the interconnected nature of global economic shocks.

The impact is not limited to India alone. Across the Asia-Pacific region, the crisis is projected to push approximately 8.8 million people into poverty. The broader economic cost could reach as high as $299 billion, underscoring the scale of disruption caused by prolonged geopolitical instability.

A key driver of this trend is the surge in energy prices, particularly due to disruptions in critical supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. As one of the world’s most important oil corridors, any instability in this region has immediate ripple effects on global energy markets, directly affecting import-dependent economies like India.

Higher fuel costs translate into increased transportation and production expenses, which in turn raise the prices of essential goods, including food. For lower-income households, these rising costs can quickly erode financial stability, pushing many below the poverty line.

The report also highlights the strain on public finances, as governments may be forced to increase subsidies or social spending to cushion the impact on citizens. This creates additional fiscal challenges, particularly for developing economies already dealing with post-pandemic recovery pressures.

The UNDP has called for coordinated international action to mitigate the impact of the crisis, emphasizing the need for stabilizing energy markets, ensuring food security, and protecting vulnerable populations through targeted policy measures.

As the West Asia conflict continues to unfold, the report serves as a stark reminder that its consequences extend far beyond the battlefield, affecting millions of lives and threatening development gains across regions.